A rough one against the Royals followed by his best start of the year against the Twins, where he punched out nine across six one-run innings. His changeup is the put-away pitch, missing bats at 45% and giving up almost nothing. Reds hitters will see a six-pitch mix and a guy who refuses to give in.
Five earned runs against the Royals, then five more against the Twins. His fastball is still touching 99 with ride, but he's leaving too many in the zone. His four-seamer up and changeup down is the one-two punch when located, and elite when it works. Watch whether he can rediscover the corners against a contact-leaning Reds lineup.
Each of his last three starts has been better than the previous one, capped by six shutout innings against the Angels. His changeup is the carrier, generating swings on garbage and swallowing bats when he buries it. He's a lefty without overpowering velocity, so the Reds should make him throw strikes.
Bar size = OPS (actual production). Bar color = Contact Quality (xwOBA). Scale anchored to league leader (Ben Rice (NYY), 1.079 OPS). Wide + warm color: it's real. Narrow + warm color: a breakout may be coming. Wide + cold color: results ahead of the contact.
Proj: .261 / .339 / .796 · 14 PA
The future Hall of Famer has gone surprisingly quiet at the plate, with no homers in his recent stretch despite an elite walk rate that has stayed put. His on-base presence remains, even when the slug is hiding. The full-season line of 6 HR and 18 SB tells you what he can still flip on. Watch any hanging breaking ball, because he turns those into damage in a hurry.
Proj: .222 / .321 / .667 · 12 PA
Settling in fast: the 2024 first overall pick is piling up walks and steals through his first two weeks of major-league action. His strike-zone discipline is already advanced, and his Australian-born left-handed swing is smooth, with a base-stealing edge. The kind of debut that suggests a long career ahead.
Proj: .240 / .309 / .672 · 12 PA
His contact-first profile has carried him through May, with a .256 line keeping the career-best season pattern alive. His expected average is a notch ahead of his actual, suggesting he's earning what he's getting. Damage is gap-to-gap, not over the fence. He runs hard and rarely beats himself.
Proj: .237 / .287 / .666 · 10 PA
Martinez keeps producing pop the frame doesn't suggest, with two homers recently and steady damage. His expected average is ahead of the actual, suggesting more is coming. He can play second, short, or the outfield, doing damage from unexpected spots in the order.
Proj: .263 / .339 / .705 · 14 PA
Kwan can't shake the slump, with the season line stuck at .206. He almost never strikes out and almost never barrels a ball, so the OBP profile holds even when the average sags. Short swing, hits the ball where it's pitched. Expect singles to left and stolen bags when he gets on.
Proj: .268 / .342 / .781 · 13 PA
Behind Ramirez, DeLauter is the offense, and right now he is the offense. He's been hitting .381 lately, full stop. He sees the ball, he doesn't chase, and when he swings he barrels. Reds pitchers will need to bury everything off the plate to keep him from doing damage.
Proj: .216 / .296 / .637 · 12 PA
The bat that carried him into the regular lineup has gone quiet, with his strikeouts climbing and the contact dropping off. His full-season .804 OPS is still solid, and his expected stats back the season-long version of him. Treat him as a real threat in a slump rather than a pumpkin returning to form.
Proj: .214 / .311 / .689 · 10 PA
His bat is slumping but his eye hasn't gone anywhere. He's gone cold at the plate lately and is still reaching base 36% of the time, drawing nine walks while clearing the fence twice. His expected average is among the lowest in the league, so don't expect a BABIP rebound. The damage comes when he gets a pitch he can drive, and he can leave the yard in a hurry. He built his Phillies career on patience and over-the-fence pop, and that's still the profile.
Proj: .224 / .305 / .709 · 9 PA
A small step up from a brutal April, with a recent homer and a .250 stretch giving the Guardians something to work with. His expected numbers are only marginally better than his actuals, so this isn't a hidden breakout. The lefty first baseman the Guardians count on for power is still searching for his swing.
Proj: .214 / .291 / .649 · 6 PA
Fry keeps producing every time he plays, with two recent homers and a .304 stretch. His expected stats back it. He can catch, play first, or cover an outfield corner, the kind of bench piece Cleveland builds entire seasons on.
Proj: .207 / .266 / .574 · 3 PA
Still searching for traction, with two hits across a scattered handful of at-bats. His sample is small enough to suspend judgment. He's a depth piece getting his look while the regulars rotate.
Proj: .197 / .262 / .569 · 5 PA
Hedges's bat has picked up a stretch of relevance, with a recent homer and a hot run the career defensive specialist doesn't usually offer. His full-season expected stats will likely pull this back to earth. The real value is behind the plate, where he calls a game as well as anyone in baseball.
Proj: .213 / .279 / .602 · 8 PA
His defense is still elite. His bat? .137 on the season with one homer in 32 games, and the recent scattered starts have only deepened the slump. His expected stats agree: weak contact, almost no barrels. He was an All-Star in his rookie year with the Giants on the strength of his glove and pop. The defense remains. The offense has cratered.
Almost five scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts and seven holds. His four-seamer is generating elite whiffs. His walks are the only reason he hasn't moved into the closer role. The Reds have to push runs across early.
Smith is locked in, with strikeouts piling up and only one earned run allowed across his recent run. His four-seam misses bats and rarely gets barreled. Treat any ninth-inning lead as anything but safe.
The journeyman right-hander has been mixing in his sweeper to good effect, putting together solid bridge work lately. His 3.45 xERA hints at better days than the season ERA suggests, since his contact-allowed has been workable.
His run prevention has stayed well ahead of his underlying signal, with one earned run allowed across his recent appearances. His hard contact allowed has been there, just not the consequences. He's a lefty matchup arm, the kind of guy who comes in to face one or two hitters and disappear.
His command has been coming and going. His 23.8% strikeout rate is real, and his heavy fastball plays. The Guardians have used him in lower-leverage spots while the trust builds.
Gaddis is still searching, with his recent appearances producing more questions than answers. His full-season 4.12 xERA says he's been somewhat unlucky, but his strikeouts are down and his walks are up. Trying to find what worked last summer.
Settled into the eighth-inning role, with 11 strikeouts and one earned run allowed across his recent run. His xERA agrees that he's been very good, and his upper-90s heat is real. The converted starter is now a key piece in front of Smith.