Two scoreless starts in a row, the most recent six innings of three-hit ball against the Astros with five strikeouts. His four-seam is finally playing, and his sweeper-changeup combo behind it has been doing the bat-missing. The first-inning damage that haunted him in April hasn't shown up. Watch whether he can carry it against a more disciplined Cleveland lineup.
ERA / WHIP
7.63 / 1.66 (5.35 in 2025)
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K%-BB%
11.6% (11.2% in 2025)
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Hard-Hit% Allowed
47.2%
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Best Pitch (Changeup)
.292 xwOBA
Newly signed by the Reds and slotting straight into the rotation. He's a finesse righty who lives 92-94 with a four-seamer up and a changeup down. His changeup is the only pitch missing bats, and without a third weapon, hitters can sit fastball. His 7.63 ERA is the worry; his 4.33 FIP says he's pitched a bit better than that.
Three rough outings since returning from the West Coast trip have his ERA climbing toward six. His sinker is getting squared up at career-high rates, and his underlying numbers say the damage is earned. His slider is still his only pitch missing bats. If he falls behind Cleveland, it gets ugly fast.
Bar size = OPS (actual production). Bar color = Contact Quality (xwOBA). Scale anchored to league leader (Ben Rice (NYY), 1.079 OPS). Wide + warm color: it's real. Narrow + warm color: a breakout may be coming. Wide + cold color: results ahead of the contact.
Proj: .246 / .320 / .753 · 13 PA
If you predicted Elly would have a .299 batting average halfway through May, go buy a lottery ticket. He's been the hottest bat on the roster lately too, with elite bat speed and top-of-the-scale hard contact. His chase rate has finally come down, which is the missing piece. Cleveland will avoid the heart of the plate. Watch what he does on borderline pitches.
Proj: .247 / .314 / .733 · 12 PA
The April fire has cooled into a quiet stretch, with his strikeouts climbing and his average dipping. The full-season case is still a Rookie of the Year frontrunner, with 10 homers, 30 RBI, and more walks than strikeouts. Watch his breaking-ball recognition this series, since pitchers have started attacking him with sliders he was chasing through last week.
Proj: .215 / .297 / .645 · 11 PA
His .664 OPS is below where he wants it, but the bat has perked up some lately with two recent homers. His chase rate is still high enough to worry about, especially against pitchers with sharp breaking stuff. Watch his at-bats against Williams, who can exploit exactly that.
Proj: .224 / .304 / .684 · 12 PA
Steer has been the steady contributor lately, hitting .300 with two homers and damage that hasn't slowed down. His expected average sits in the 85th percentile, so the line is real. He's been pulling breaking stuff with authority. Watch how Cleveland's lefties attack him, since that's been his sweet spot.
Proj: .228 / .309 / .661 · 8 PA
His OPS ranks at the bottom of the league for qualified leadoff types, and the recent stretch hasn't done anything to argue otherwise. His expected numbers agree it's no fluke. He's hitting nothing hard. His walks and contact rate haven't disappeared, so the on-base value is still there. Watch his small-ball plays, where his speed still shows up.
Proj: .229 / .284 / .619 · 8 PA
The line says .149 and the eye says he's overmatched. Both are misleading. He's lifting the ball at career-best rates, his barrel rate has doubled, his strikeouts are down, and the hard contact has been there. The hits just aren't falling. Watch his line drives this series. Once they start getting through, the average climbs in a hurry.
Proj: .211 / .291 / .638 · 9 PA
The everyday catcher is hitting .186 and trying to find a rhythm. His chase rate has spiked into the 90s, and pitchers have caught on, working him with breaking stuff off the plate. His barrel rates are still good when he connects. He's just not connecting often enough. Watch whether he can lay off the slider down and away.
Proj: .222 / .286 / .623 · 6 PA
The bat that carried him through April has gone quiet. He's 1-for-16 in May, the lone hit a solo shot against Washington. His earlier on-base value was real, with the walks holding up, but the contact has cratered. Watch him against Cleveland's lefties to see if he can find his timing again.
Proj: .200 / .290 / .650 · 6 PA
His bat is still quiet, but the on-base ability hasn't gone anywhere. He's walking 16.9% of the time on the season and pitchers can't get him to chase. His on-base ability is keeping him useful while the contact lags. Watch him in left-on-left matchups, where the Reds have started platooning more aggressively.
Proj: .228 / .317 / .703 · 8 PA
The April thunder has gone quiet. His strikeouts have piled up and the .176 stretch is dragging the season OPS down. Lowe has always been a streaky hitter, with hot months and cold ones running through his career, so this stretch isn't out of pattern. His whiffs are the real worry, since his chase rate has crept up against breaking stuff. Watch whether he can stay on the heater. The Reds need the bat back.
Proj: .222 / .313 / .727 · 11 PA
Bleday has been the hottest bat on the page since getting called up from Louisville, hitting .320 with six homers and 13 walks. His contact has matched the production, and his expected slug agrees with the real one. Pitchers are already pitching around him and he's not biting. Watch his first at-bat each game, where he's been hottest jumping on early-count fastballs.
Proj: .229 / .278 / .623 · 4 PA
Picking up scattered starts behind Stephenson, and his bat hasn't shown up. His sample is small, but the contact has been weak when it has come. Watch his game-calling more than his bat in this series. Cleveland's lineup is one that punishes a catcher who lets the wrong pitch leak over.
Proj: .211 / .284 / .591 · 5 PA
The rookie has been useful in his first stretch of MLB at-bats, including a homer and a steal. His sample is too small to read, but the early signs are encouraging. Watch how Cleveland's pitchers attack him on the second time through. The league hasn't built a book on him yet.
Settled into the late-inning role, missing bats at an elite rate. His cutter and slider combo is missing bats at career-high rates. He's the option the Reds trust most. Watch for him in any high-leverage spot from the seventh on.
A rough early-May blowup has been followed by some better outings, but his walks are still the constant. His sweeper is one of the better breaking balls in the bullpen, but he can't get to it because he's behind every count. Watch the first batter he faces. If he throws a strike, he's usually fine.
Mostly scoreless work in his recent appearances, with his strikeouts piling up. His 2.75 ERA looks real. His four-seam plays better than the velocity suggests, getting whiffs through deception. The Reds use him as the bridge between the starter and the late-inning trio. Watch for him in the sixth and seventh.
Three good outings to start the month gave way to a brutal stretch against the Nationals where everything got squared up. His 4.98 FIP hints at trouble that his 3.06 ERA hasn't fully reflected. Watch him in matchup spots against Cleveland's lefties.
Mixed in his recent outings: scoreless work next to single-run blow-ups. His curveball generates whiffs but also gets hit hard when it hangs. Hitters have started sitting curve early in counts. Watch what he does on first pitches.
His 5.82 ERA has been padded by a recent zero-out, four-earned-run blowup against the Astros, and his underlying 8.05 FIP says it should be worse. His fastball has been hit harder than the velocity should allow, suggesting it's straight when it gets to the plate. The leash should be tightening. Watch the home run risk in any tied game.
The stuff has been loud in his recent appearances, with his strikeouts piling up. His slider and sweeper combo is generating elite whiff rates, but his walks are the obvious tell that his command is still developing. Watch him in non-leverage spots first. Trust grows from there.
Working his way back into a regular role, with two earned runs allowed across his recent appearances. The early signal is exactly what the Reds wanted when they finally got him healthy. Watch his role grow in the next two weeks if his velocity holds.