Texas Rangers — Heat Check

MacKenzie Gore

LHP · Apr 3

Dealing

ERA / WHIP 3.38 / 0.94

Innings Pitched 5.1

K%-BB% 18.2% ~

Hard-Hit Rate Allowed 18.2% ↑

Exit Velocity Allowed 79.5 mph ↑

Expected ERA 2.80 ↑

Start Projection · Apr 3 vs CIN

Proj IP5.4

Proj ERA4.40

Proj K6.0

QS%44%

The contact suppression here is exceptional. Hitters are barely squaring the ball up, with exit velocity well below league average and a hard-hit rate that ranks among the best in baseball so far. The projection is skeptical because his 2025 ERA ran higher than his underlying metrics suggested it should. The metrics are even better now. This is a must-watch start.

Kumar Rocker

RHP · Apr 4

Question Mark

ERA / WHIP — (2025: 5.74 / 1.46)

Innings Pitched 0.0 (2026 debut)

K%-BB% — (2025: 11.5%) ~

Hard-Hit Rate Allowed — (2025: 39.2%) ~

Exit Velocity Allowed — (2025: 91.3 mph) ~

Expected ERA — (2025: 5.74) ~

2026 Debut · Apr 4 vs CIN

2025 GS14

2025 IP64.1

2025 K%19.5%

2025 BB%8.0%

This is Rocker's first start of 2026, so everything here is his 2025 baseline. The contact numbers last year were rough — hitters hit the ball hard and often, and his xERA confirmed the ERA was not just bad luck. He is a talented arm, but he has not yet shown the ability to suppress contact consistently. Watch whether his stuff is sharper than what we saw in the second half of 2025.

TBD

Apr 5

TBD

Starter Not yet announced

Apr 5 vs CIN · Starter TBD

——

The Sunday starter has not been announced. Check back closer to game time.

HEAT METERProduction vs. 2025 · Bar size = OPS · Bar color = Contact Quality

Bar size = OPS (actual production). Bar color = Contact Quality (xwOBA). Wide + warm color: it's real. Narrow + warm color: a breakout may be coming. Wide + cold color: results ahead of the contact.

WHO TO WATCH THIS SERIESvs Cincinnati Reds, April 3–5 · Latz / Gore / Leiter

Corey Seager

SS · 6 G, 28 PA

On Fire

AVG / OBP / SLG .318 / .429 / .727 ↑

xwOBA .446 ↑

Exit Velocity 93.7 mph (+0.8 vs 2025) ↑

Hard-Hit Rate 54.4% (+13.4 vs 2025) ↑

Strikeout / Walk Rate 17.9% / 17.9% ↑

Series Projection

R1.8

HR0.7

RBI1.9

SB0.1

Proj. line: .277 / .359 / .534 · ~12 PA

Two homers and a .429 OBP, and the second series was even better than the first: strikeout rate dropped to almost nothing and the contact was sharper. He's squaring the ball up at a rate well above anything he showed last year. The projection seems conservative given how he's actually hitting the ball. The one to watch most closely this series.

Brandon Nimmo

OF · 6 G, 28 PA

Hot Start

AVG / OBP / SLG .360 / .429 / .520 ↑

xwOBA .391 ↑

Exit Velocity 94.1 mph (+2.2 vs 2025) ↑

Hard-Hit Rate 45.0% (+9.1 vs 2025) ↑

Strikeout / Walk Rate 17.9% / 7.1% ↑

Series Projection

R1.9

HR0.6

RBI1.4

SB0.2

Proj. line: .256 / .327 / .453 · ~13 PA

Signed on a short deal and immediately looked like his best self. The hard-hit rate jumped sharply above last year, and both series were productive. The contact quality backs up everything the results are showing. He's a left-handed bat who gets the left-hander Gore on Saturday, which is the toughest draw of the series for him.

Andrew McCutchen

DH · 5 G, 15 PA

Hot Start

AVG / OBP / SLG .429 / .467 / .786 ↑

xwOBA .350 ↑

Exit Velocity 95.7 mph (+6.2 vs 2025) ↑

Hard-Hit Rate 60.0% (+25.5 vs 2025) ↑

Chase Rate 25.3% ~

Series Projection

R0.7

HR0.2

RBI0.6

SB0.1

Proj. line: .234 / .313 / .391 · ~6 PA

The numbers look eye-catching, but the second series told a very different story: the contact quality collapsed after a scorching first series. The question for this series is which version shows up. He's playing part-time, so every at-bat carries extra weight. A veteran who can still put together dangerous stretches, but don't assume the first-series production continues.

Danny Jansen

C · 4 G, 17 PA

On The Rise

AVG / OBP / SLG .294 / .294 / .529 ↑

xwOBA .375 ↑

Exit Velocity 91.0 mph (+3.4 vs 2025) ↑

Hard-Hit Rate 38.5% ~

Strikeout Rate 23.5% ~

Series Projection

R0.9

HR0.3

RBI0.9

SB0.1

Proj. line: .220 / .295 / .405 · ~7 PA

Cold in the first series, then completely turned it around in the second. The contact quality in that second series was genuinely elite. Something clicked and the ball started jumping off the bat in a way it hadn't before. The projection reflects his full-season track record and looks too low given the recent form.

Jake Burger

1B/3B · 6 G, 27 PA

Mixed Signals

AVG / OBP / SLG .346 / .370 / .615 ↑

xwOBA .336 ~

Exit Velocity 89.1 mph (-1.3 vs 2025) ↓

Hard-Hit Rate 40.0% ~

Strikeout Rate 40.7% (+16.0 vs 2025) ↓

Series Projection

R1.4

HR0.6

RBI1.7

SB0.1

Proj. line: .243 / .282 / .454 · ~12 PA

The home runs and the batting average make this look like a hot start. But the strikeout rate is 16 points above his level from all of last year, and he's drawn zero walks. The production so far has come from balls in play finding holes, not from elite contact. The second series showed real improvement in strikeout rate but the pattern is worth watching closely.

Evan Carter

OF · 6 G, 19 PA

Steady

AVG / OBP / SLG .250 / .368 / .375 ~

xwOBA .390 ↑

Exit Velocity 91.1 mph (+4.4 vs 2025) ↑

Walk Rate 15.8% (+7.2 vs 2025) ↑

Strikeout Rate 21.1% ~

Series Projection

R0.9

HR0.3

RBI0.8

SB0.2

Proj. line: .240 / .321 / .422 · ~7 PA

No extra-base hits yet, but the contact quality is the best it's been since his rookie year, with exit velocity up sharply above his 2025 numbers. He's also drawing walks at a career-high rate. The power hasn't shown up yet but the underlying form suggests it's there. The second-series strikeout rate jumped, which is the one thing to monitor.

Ezequiel Duran

UTL · 4 G, 11 PA

Mixed Signals

AVG / OBP / SLG .273 / .273 / .636 ↑

xwOBA .225 ~

Exit Velocity 91.6 mph (+6.3 vs 2025) ↑

Hard-Hit Rate 37.5% (+14.5 vs 2025) ↑

Chase Rate 32.4% (-6.5 vs 2025) ↑

Series Projection

R0.6

HR0.2

RBI0.6

SB0.2

Proj. line: .243 / .278 / .383 · ~5 PA

The OPS number is eye-catching, but the contact quality score says the results are running well ahead of what he's actually earned. A terrible first series followed by a much better second series makes this a hard read. The improving exit velocity and hard-hit rate in S2 are real, but the overall picture doesn't yet back up the production. Interesting player to watch.

Wyatt Langford

OF · 6 G, 28 PA

Rough Start

AVG / OBP / SLG .143 / .143 / .214 ↓

xwOBA .262 (vs .346 in 2025) ↓

Exit Velocity 89.1 mph (-2.3 vs 2025) ↓

Walk Rate 0.0% (-12.9 vs 2025) ↓

Chase Rate 29.0% ~

Series Projection

R1.7

HR0.5

RBI1.4

SB0.4

Proj. line: .245 / .322 / .436 · ~12 PA

This is the player the Rangers are most counting on, and he's delivered the least. No walks, below-average contact quality on both measures, and the OBP shows it. The second series was better than the first but still well below his 2025 level. The projection is banking on a correction. Watch whether the patience that defined his game last year starts to show up.

Joc Pederson

DH · 4 G, 11 PA

Cold Start

AVG / OBP / SLG .000 / .182 / .000 ↓

xwOBA .223 (vs .315 in 2025) ↓

Exit Velocity 98.0 mph (+6.8 vs 2025) ↑

Hard-Hit Rate 30.0% ~

Chase Rate 28.9% ~

Series Projection

R1.0

HR0.4

RBI1.0

SB0.1

Proj. line: .236 / .321 / .464 · ~8 PA

Zero hits but hitting the ball as hard as anyone on the team. The contact keeps finding fielders rather than gaps, which is a launch angle problem more than a power problem. When the exit velocity and the direction sync up, something is going over the fence. Hard to predict when that happens, but it won't take many at-bats.

Josh Jung

3B · 5 G, 21 PA

Cold Start

AVG / OBP / SLG .095 / .095 / .095 ↓

xwOBA .159 (vs .304 in 2025) ↓

Exit Velocity 84.7 mph (-4.6 vs 2025) ↓

Strikeout Rate 33.3% (+8.1 vs 2025) ↓

Chase Rate 43.5% (+7.2 vs 2025) ↓

Series Projection

R1.0

HR0.4

RBI1.1

SB0.1

Proj. line: .241 / .278 / .408 · ~9 PA

A tough start across every measure. The exit velocity is down, the strikeout rate is up, and he's chasing more bad pitches than he did all of last year. Nothing in the underlying data suggests this turns around quickly. The projection is still banking on his full-season form. Watch whether the plate discipline returns against this Reds staff.

Josh Smith

UTL · 5 G, 20 PA

Rough Start

AVG / OBP / SLG .176 / .300 / .176 ↓

xwOBA .313 ~

Exit Velocity 87.9 mph (+0.7 vs 2025) ~

Walk Rate 15.0% (+5.2 vs 2025) ↑

Chase Rate 31.4% ~

Series Projection

R0.8

HR0.2

RBI0.8

SB0.2

Proj. line: .238 / .312 / .383 · ~8 PA

No extra-base hits and a low batting average, but the underlying contact numbers are essentially in line with his 2025 baseline. The second series showed real improvement in contact quality, and his walk rate has actually ticked up. This looks more like bad luck than bad form. A small bounce is due.

HEAT CHECK

ON THE MOUNDRangers starters for the vs CIN series

HEAT METERProduction vs. 2025 · Bar size = OPS · Bar color = Contact Quality

WHO TO WATCH THIS SERIESvs Cincinnati Reds, April 3–5 · Latz / Gore / Leiter